Madrid: A Strange Tournament?

Madrid in many ways will be considered by many to have been a strange tournament – no Rafa, no Roger and no Djokovic. These three players have been dominating men’s tennis with an iron fist and yet all three were defeated not by each other but by lower seeds. However, looking at Andy as he lifted his second consecutive master’s title, I thought to myself, “yes this tournament has been a bit strange but the final result… perhaps it was to be expected”. Andy played brilliantly against Rafa in New York; for me, it was one of the best performances of the year and in terms of clever tennis, perhaps even the best – yes, yes he lost to Roger so very quickly in the finals but to be fair to Andy, Roger lifted his game to its supreme level for much of that match and lets give the guy a break, it was after all his first grand slam final. But the fact was the same, he beat Nadal, the player that is no doubt playing the best tennis on the men’s tour and what really struck me was how easy he made it look. In the end, considering this performance, perhaps Murray winning was to be expected… maybe it was a normal tournament after all.

Some thoughts on Andy:

Looking beyond Madrid, the top three have much to be concerned about – mainly for next year. Now it may seem a little early to talk too much about Murray’s prospects for next year but I can’t help but think of some of the possibilities. Last year Novak reached the finals of the US Open and then went on to win the Australian Open – he went into the latter with a lot more confidence and determination – this sense that he could win – moreover I’m sure he got tired of everyone saying, “you had your chances”. I believe Murray is going to make quite an impelling push at the Australian Open next year – he knows he has the game, he knows he has the fitness and more importantly he now knows that he can beat anyone in the top 10 – in fact perhaps he even thinks he’s a little smarter than everyone in the top ten. However I think it is at Wimbledon next year that I feel that his presence in the top 4 will really be felt… yes, yes, I know, perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself but Andy already showed how good he could be on grass this year and now he has the belief that he can beat Roger and Rafa – that’s right, even on grass!!! Okay, okay, I better stop there and it’s not necessarily that I believe that Andy will do any of these things next year… I mean, he is still up against one of the greatest players in history and the Wimbledon champ but my point is that if Murray keeps going on as he has this season… things can happen. Saying that, let’s all prey and hope for another Roger – Rafa match!!!!

Queries for the Future:

All in all, Madrid was great, not only because Simon showed us a few magic tricks and Andy showed that he’s here to stay but because it does raise some important questions; what impact will Murray have on the competitive dynamics of the top 3? Is Roger back in vintage form or is there still a big difference, perhaps even an enduring difference between the Federer of old and the current Fed? Is Rafa’s fantastic run since Wimbledon still going or has he fizzled a bit since the Olympics? How will Novak regain his strength and motivation going into next year, especially in respect to the defence of his Aust. Open title? Many questions, too many for me, and I think Paris and Shanghai will give us some answers.

A Strange Day in Madrid

A Strange Day?

When the Madrid draw was released, I think everyone thought that Rafa had a pretty easy draw; his only obstacle for impressing his home crowd was Novak and although Novak is always a threat to any winning ambition, as soon as he was ousted by the tie-break kid Karlovic, it was probably a universal feeling that Rafa would go on to the finals and perhaps even face-off against Roger – not to be!!! For once since Wimbledon, the spotlight isn’t on the no1 and 2 and instead the young Simon and Andy have all the attention – no Fed, no Rafa…. it was certainly a very strange day

A Different Simon:

Rafa had everything when you think about it – he had the momentum, he was still pulling of his miraculous passing shots, he had the home field advantage and he had all the confidence in the world so what happened? Well Simon played the match of his life and I think more importantly he enjoyed himself. If you look at Simon’s regular matches, they’re very routine – it’s like his play is pre-programmed and he’s just pressing the buttons – he rarely smiles or seems overly excited, and he just goes on about his business with a kind of mild partiality. Last night was a different affair; he threw his regular play out the window and decided to play with some spontaneity – he truly embraced that idea of “there’s nothing to loose”. His shots down the line were mesmerizing not only because they surprised the ever active Nadal but because of their frequency – there’s no doubt that the question on everyone’s match during that 3^rd set was “for how long can he keep this up”? Simon however was impressive for more reasons than this – his ability to get the ball into play and actually draw the error from Rafa was unbelievable – to do that to Rafa?????? One would think that was impossible!! But it didn’t stop there, Simon exhibited great touch at the net – I’ll never forget that point where Rafa had the net closed off and Simon hit a gentle passing shot that passed the narrowest of gateways and landed in the right hand corner of the Rafa court – Rafa just turned around in disbelief and I thought to myself where have I seen that face before – ahh yes, on the face of nearly every one of his opponents!! The fact is Simon had fun, the experience exhilarated him and lets just hope he brings the same bubbly intensity to all his matches in the future.

A Strange Day for Rafa:

It must be said though that despite the brilliance of Simon, Rafa played better tennis- Rafa put greater pressure on Simon during all his service games and did some miraculous things himself – its just that he’s now feeling what Roger must feel, the shots are expected of him. Rafa didn’t win the game because he didn’t do what he does best – play the big points well. He failed to convert 22 break points and he did have his chances – it’s not as if Simon played every one of Rafa break point opportunities brilliantly. Secondly Rafa’s serve was not good enough – Simon got them back in with too much depth and from there, Rafa’s heavy hitting was not good enough. Thirdly and I hate to say this but Rafa just seemed to get a little frustrated in the second half of the 3^rd set – like I said, it was a very strange day indeed. In the end it was Simons day, he played the best tennis of his life and now every one of his opponents will play him with just a bit of fear and apprehension in their minds – he’s no longer Simon the counter-puncher, but Simon “the guy that beat Nadal and Federer in the same year” – if that doesn’t strike a bit a fear into your opponent, I don’t know what will.

Federer vs Murray: The Story of a Forehand gone Wrong

A New Script for Andy:

Andy played a poor match against Roger in New York. Murray served poorly, made too many unforced errors and had no answers for Federer’s exceedingly aggressive game; as one of the commentators while I was watching said, “that’s grand slam winning tennis”. Roger tried the same aggressive game in Madrid and for the first set, the match followed the US Open script. The second and third set was completely a different story – it was as If Andy suddenly got the script in his hand and realized what a bad story it was for him and decided to amend it himself. Suddenly Andy started attacking the Federer serve, surprisingly not just the second but the seemingly untouchable first. Andy changed gears even further in the third set putting Roger under pressure in nearly every one of his service games. If you were a Fed fan, you would have definitely been telling yourself that all Fed has to do is turn it on and break serve unexpectedly and the match for Andy will be over in no time. That line of thought is pretty good – after all that’s what Rodger is so good at; suddenly elevating his game and breaking, even though there was no indication that he would be able to throughout the set – however not this time!!! Andy in the end did everything; he played very aggressively and therefore disrupted every shot Federer was using as a precursor to a winning shot. In short, Andy didn’t allow Roger to construct the points at the same ease as he done against Del Potro. Every time Roger looked like he was on top, Andy would hit an eye-grabbing passing shot. He took the risks when it was appropriate but knew how to confine his play to drawing out the error at other times. Murray has now defeated the top three in all his most recent encounters with them – Djokovic at Cincy, Nadal in New York and now Federer in Madrid – once you’ve achieved that at his age, the sky’s the limit - all I can say for now is, “Novak, watch out”!!!

Vintage Federer vs Clever Federer:

Despite the brilliance of Murray, Rogers game was very defective in the wing that he adores the most – the great liquid whip – his forehand. Not at any point during the match did Roger feel comfortable with his forehand. Surprisingly his backhand was working perfectly, but against a player of Andy’s quality, he really needed his iconic forehand. Now it must be said that this is not the first time that Roger’s forehand has given him some trouble. During the US Open, in that third set against Djokovic and his epic 4^th round five setter, his forehand displayed the same error-prone behaviour. Why it happens…. well I’m not quite sure if even Roger knows himself and the fact is that the problem is not going away. The good news is that this error-prone behaviour lasts only for a set or sometimes as it did in Madrid, a bit longer but rarely does it last for more than two sets. This is why Roger is still quite successful at the grand slams but having a little difficulty in other tournaments where the matches go up to three sets. So what must the great Roger Federer do to overcome this? Well firstly, Roger has to realize that until this problem ‘leaves’, returning to being ‘vintage Federer’ is not really viable; he has to start playing within himself. He can continue to play aggressively but these miraculous shots that he has no doubt got accustomed to over the last five or so years have to be contained and used only rarely… its time that Roger starts to play not like ‘vintage Federer’ but more like ‘clever Federer’…… at least until the magic returns. In the end Roger is such a momentously brilliant player that ‘clever Federer’ is enough to win the grand slams and masters tournaments – there’s no need for magic anymore, he provided us with magic of the most unbelievable and unprecedented kind for over 4 years; victories will do!!! – especially one that will bring grand slam no. 14.

Gulbis vs Rafa… another whippersnapper on the rise.

The Prodigy:

In his first match in Madrid, Rafa showed that it takes much more than a good drop-shot to beat him. But let’s face it, nobody realistically expected the Latvian to beat the Spanish bull; we all did however expect him to give Rafa a reasonably tough time and he didn’t disappoint. He showed some of that spark that we saw a glimpse of against Roddick in New York when we all told ourselves “wow, this guys going places”. Along with Cilic, Gulbis is one of those prodigies that haven’t made top 10 quite yet and he really demonstrated why in Madrid yesterday. He played all his shots yesterday and returned serve exceedingly well. I couldn’t even count how many times Rafa had to go backwards because the return went so deep. He went for the risky shots fearlessly and even though he wasn’t always successful, he has to be applauded for trying to play his naturally aggressive game against someone like Rafa… most players just head for cover against the Wimbeldon champ. Another surprise was the frequency of the Gulbis drop-shot.. he had Nadal running hard and Rafa could rarely get back on top after a good drop shot no matter how well he hustled.

Rafa's 'never give up' attitude:

However it has to be said, Gulbis is just a prodigy for a reason.. as good as the Latvian was, he wasn’t patient enough during some of the points; Rafa kept getting the ball back into play as he always does so relentlessly and Gulbis just panicked now and again and went for a shot that just wasn’t on.. if he was a little bit more patient and focused, that first set may have ended differently. In the end, it was Rafa’s day and although the regularity of the pump fist clearly indicated that Rafa wasn’t having the easiest time out there, he came out on top, simply because he does what he does every match… “he plays every point as if it was a match point”. When we’re all young, there’s always someone that tells us, “don’t give up, never give up”……. Rafa listened, and I think he hears it every point.

Is Federer on a come-back trail?

Its strange to even ask the question; is Federer on a come-back trail? He reached the semi’s of the Australian Open despite being unwell, got to the finals of Rolland Garros and Wimbeldon and yet, everybody seems to be asking this almost silly yet somehow very significant question. After visiting Tennis.com and reading Steve Tignor’s predictions for the Masters series in Madrid, it seems that the answer is a resounding no!! Steve seems very much certain that Federer won’t win, in fact, Roger supposedly won’t even reach the semi finals – Del Potro however, after being unable to even beat Murray at the US open is predicted to reach the semi’s; very strange indeed!!!! I decided to go for a second opinion, just in case, after all, Steve thought that Roger wouldn’t even get to the semi-finals of the US Open… could it be that he was wrong again? I therefore looked to ESPN’s Ravi Uhba and surprisingly, I confronted the same prediction – Del Potro over Federer. It was truly strange, Roger Federer, one of the greatest of all time who just won the US Open having to pass Novak and Andy. It then hit me, it must be because Novak was tired and Andy didn’t play his best game… it must be that the critics feel that Federer isn’t back, he just got lucky. Being lucky enough to win a grand slam…. that’s definitely a first but I decided to overlook this assumption.

Perhaps Steve and Ravi have good reason to rate Del Potro over Roger. Roger was pretty dismal at his last two master’s tournaments. But I still wasn’t convinced, it still felt quite strange and bizarre that Del Potro, a player that seems to think that the baseline should rarely be crossed can defeat Rogers elegant all-court game. Okay, fine, perhaps I’m not giving Del Potro enough credit; his wins at the Davis Cup were pretty impressive – there was a lot of fantastic hard-hitting from the young Argentine… but still, to rate him above a player that has won 13 grand slams and counting… I mean I don’t think anyone will be surprised if Del Potro never wins a grand slam. In the end, considering Roger’s status in the game, and his overall performance this year, it seems only sensible to place him above Del Potro. Anybody that says, “Nadal will beat Federer” may have a point; I mean after Wimbledon, that statement has a lot of credibility but “Del Potro will beat Federer”; that just sounds quite absurd no matter how you look at it.

Now it may be the case that Del Potro beats Roger, and Steve and Ravi end up being right… I’m not saying it won’t happen but to make that prediction now seems unjustifiable. The question that keeps striking me pointedly in the head when I even try to give some credibility to the prediction is this simple statistic – Del Potro = 0 grand slams, Federer = 13 grand slams. Yes yes, Del Potro’s just a youngen, but do we give youth that much value and 13 grand slams so little value????? I look forward to a competitive encounter between them and if Del Potro’s industrial baseline play triumphs over Roger – fine, and it might not even shock me but to predict it will happen – that just seems a tad disrespectful. The king of tennis may not yet be back in full flight and he may have lost the coveted no. 1 ranking but he’s still royalty and well….. Del Potro isn’t..... not yet.