Last years indoor season was a story that Nalbandian will be telling his kids over and over again. That Madrid final between him and Federer is one that Federer fans have long repressed in the deep crevices of their memory – even Freud would have difficulty getting Fed fans to bring the topic to the open and just admit that the great and mighty Roger Federer was out-played. This year, Nadal is the hot ticket – he’s playing in front of his home crown and he’s on the roll of a lifetime – in fact whenever he’s in trouble on a hard-court, he must think to himself, “I won Wimbledon, me, a player that loves punching the ball back into court over and over again from behind the baseline, surely I can win here too”. But then again there’s the 13 time grand slam champ out to get back the no.1 spot, a spot he went to bed with for 237 weeks – that’s not something you let go of easily. Ohh yes what about Novak and Andy, good times they’ve had this year – well one things for sure, mens tennis is an exciting place right now!!!
1st Quarter
Not many players here that seem capable of bothering Nadal too much but Gulbis might give him a run for his money. Gulbis played some amazing tennis against Roddick at the US Open but kind of fizzled out in the last half; he let the crowd help Roddick and he paid the price but I think it’s universally accepted that the first set and a half was pure brilliance. If he can play like that for three sets or maybe just two, Rafa might have to dig deep. Other than him, Rafa’s got Wawrinka and Ferrer. After watching Murray defeat Rafa convincingly in New York, I think we all have a better idea of what’s required to get Nadal on the ropes and I just think Wawrinka’s game is a little too one-dimensional to cause Rafa too much trouble. As for Ferrer, he just won’t be forceful enough point after point to beat the Wimbledon champ. Rafa’s also got Richard Gasquet; I think everyone loves to watch Gasquet when he’s on a roll but he just wont have the consistency throughout an entire match to hurt Rafa - in the end, considering how magical Rafa has been this year, he'll only be troubled by someone who is versatile and can maintain an incredibly high level of play for over two sets or more – in short one of the top 4
Semi-finalist – Nadal
2nd Quarter
The Novak of the Australian Open seems to have gotten lost somewhere between strength and fatigue and doesn’t know which way to go. Novak was certainly very disappointing at the US Open. I knew Roger would pull through but we all expected more from the Serb – in fact the only reason that match went to 4 sets is because Roger seemed to become error prone again in that second set. Novak’s got a few tough ones in his quarter including the tie-break kid himself Ivo Karlovic. He’s also got Davydenko, Blake and his Wimbledon conqueror Safin. In the end however, despite the quality of these players and so long as Novak stays away from a tie-breaker with Karlovic, Novak is just too sleek, speedy and precise to be disturbed by any of these players. His back-handed down the line will get him through even if he is tired but his tendency to get fatigued will cost him as he gets into the business end of the tournament. Let’s just hope for his sake that some New Yorkers haven’t followed him all the way to Madrid.
Semi-finalist – Novak Djokovic
3rd Quarter
It has to be said, Murray made Rafa look average at the US Open; he had a game plan and he followed it. He played aggressively, he served superbly, he volleyed, he went down the line whenever he could, made Rafa scramble around the baseline and more importantly, he never let himself get pined down. He even served and volleyed on his second serve, such was his resolve and risk-taking – now that’s the kind of aggressive tennis that reveals some of the very few weknesses in Rafa’s game. I remember Rafa starting to serve and volley at one point in the match and you know Rafa knows that he’s being outplayed when he starts doing that. Andy’s got Monfils, Roddick and Gonzalez in his section; Monfils is a great counter-puncher but Andy’s better. Roddick and Gonzalez are both players that seem to have no plan B when they’re in trouble, they just seem to hit harder and as much I enjoy the spiritedness of Roddick, it’s probably not going to be good enough to bother someone as clever and versatile as Andy Murray. There is one player however that might discretely push through and that’s Marin Cilic. I think most tennis fans will remember that match between him and Novak in New York – offensive hard-hitting of the most swift kind from beginning to end. Now this guys going to be big, it’s only a matter of time before he beats one of the big guns and makes a name for himself – could Madrid become his new favourite city??
Semi-finalist – Andy Murray
4th Quarter
Roger’s got the toughest section of the draw. He’s got Nalbandian, Del Potro and Tsonga. If Nalbandian brings his 2007 indoor game, everyone’s in trouble and he did just win a title – a kind of announcement, “I can do it again”. Del Potro may not be the most elegant player, his shots seem aesthetically unattractive even when they’re breathtaking but he plays great non-stop heavy hitting from the baseline and as for Tsonga, lets hope for tennis’s sake that he plays like he did in that first set of the Australian Open final. Despite all this and all the fuss about Federer announcing this indefinite break, Roger just won a grand-slam and what else does a player have to do to be predicted as a semi-finalist???
Semi-finalist – Roger Federer
Semi-final 1 – This ones a tough one.... Rafa vs Novak. Last time these two met it was Beijing and it was heartbreaking for Novak to come so close and yet leave with the bronze. However, looking back before then, there was the masters semi-final in Cincy and Novak made Rafa look quite tired in that first set. He was hitting his shots flat and on the lines, Rafa had no chance – if he can do it again, and he has to do it again, he can beat Rafa. And then there’s the problem of the crowd, they are going to be watering at the mouth every time Rafa gets close to getting on top and Novak has to find a way to retain his composure. If Novak finds his so-called ‘boom boom’ game on this surface, he’ll be the one to come out on top.
Djokovic d. Nadal
Semi-final 2 – Murray did not play well against Roger at the US Open. This is not to say he would have won if he played at his best but he could have taken Roger to at least 4 sets considering his performance against Rafa in the Semi’s. If he finds his serve and doesn’t play miles behind the baseline, he has a good shot of beating Federer. But saying that, Roger is Roger and Andy might have a tough time keeping the ball in play if Roger steps into the court and plays as aggressively as he did in New York. Not to mention that chip and charge strategy in the third set, Andy just seemed bemused by it!!
Federer d. Murray
Finals – I’m not going to say too much on this.. I don’t want to do too much fortune telling. If Novak isn’t too tired and plays as good as he has to, to beat Rafa in the semi’s, he stands a great chance of winning the championship but ultimately, I feel that if Roger gets this far he’s not going to let the momentum fall. If Roger volleys as much he has been lately and doesn’t fall into these strange 5 to 10 game long stints of error prone play, he should take home the trophy.
Federer d. Djokovic
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